The $34 trillion problem: Senators Clinton, Obama, McCain Are You Listening?
Posted Oct 02 2008 3:15pm
Stanley Feld M.D.,FACP,MACE
It is easy for the presidential candidates to promise healthcare for all during a presidential election year. However this promise is made without testing reality. The reality is America can not afford to deliver healthcare to all. The country is having difficulty keeping its public hospitals open. These public hospitals are centers for last resort care.
“Some have suggested that Grady must compete for paying customers in Atlanta’s fierce medical marketplace, while others say that taxpayers should contribute more to continue its mission. Will Grady outsource, or simply downsize? And if it must downsize, which patients should be turned away?”
None of the presidential candidates have suggested viable solutions to the healthcare system’s problems. I think the Democratic Party wants its declared initiatives to fail. After the initiatives fail they will claim there is no other choice but universal healthcare system with the government as the single party payer. The failure of the proposed insurance paradigm is a back door entry to a single party payer system.
Alan Greenspan has been quoted as saying “the biggest threat to the American economy is Medicare. You'd think that the greatest threat to America's economy would be Topic A for the presidential candidates. But it's actually a topic they hate to touch.”
Instead, the great debate between Hillary Clinton and Barach Obama is to mandate universal coverage or not. If you require people to buy healthcare insurance using a defective healthcare insurance model all you will be doing is providing more customers for the healthcare insurance industry.
“An analysis of their speeches shows that last year Senators Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Barack Obama would occasionally mention the Medicare mess. But recently, with the economy slowing and voters feeling insecure, all three candidates have turned more populist: Their economic talking points are about feel-good reassurances, not about facing hard realities.”
Americans should be suspicious of Sen. Clinton’s promises. I mention her because she has been the most vocal in diverting us from the reality of the government run healthcare systems mess.
“Unfortunately the day of reckoning is imminent. Sometime in the next President's first term, Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) will go cash-flow-negative, and it's all downhill from there.”
“Medicare services more than 40 million old and disabled Americans. As the country ages, Medicare and Medicaid will devour growing chunks of U.S. economic output.”
This is especially true if our obesity epidemic continues. Obese people are more prone to chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension and coronary artery disease.
If we institute universal coverage and single party payer the estimate of healthcare costs consuming 18% of our GNP will jump to 40% of our GNP by 2020.
“In 2070, when today's kids are retiring, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will consume the entire federal budget, with Medicare taking by far the largest share. No Army, no Navy, no Education Department - just those three programs.”
“Those estimates, reported in the latest Financial Report of the U.S. Government, assume that Medicare payments to doctors will be slashed drastically, by some 41% over the next nine years, as required by current law. It won't happen. Every year for the past five years, Congress has overridden the mandatory cuts.”
It is obvious something has to change. The estimate of healthcare costs is base on a defect financial reporting by the US Government. The financial report admits these defects.
“As for future cuts, the Financial Report says drily, "Reductions of this magnitude are not feasible and are very unlikely to occur fully in practice." So in reality, Medicare will go into the hole even faster than official projections reflect. And they show that if Medicare had to be accounted for like a company pension fund, it would be underfunded by $34 trillion.”
The Congress has been correct in its override of proposed Medicare cuts yearly. However, they have done it for the wrong reasons. I have been against the Medicare cuts to cognitive physicians. Medicare cuts do not solve the basic structural healthcare problems.
There are many other constructive solutions. These solutions include a War on Obesity, effective malpractice reform,encouragement of effective disease management and incentives for both patients and physicians to practice effective disease prevention and disease management to decrease the onset of complications of chronic diseases. The solution can only be accomplished with real price transparency by all the stakeholders, an ideal medical saving account, an ideal electronic medical record, and the creation of a system of competition so that the patients own their healthcare dollars and all the other stakeholders compete for their healthcare dollar. These elements of the solution can not be done piece meal. They have to be introduced and enacted as a complete package in order to be effective.
The solution proposed will probably never be enacted. The people (“People Power”) have to make the demand for effective change. There are too many powerful stakeholders who will lose and will not let effective change occur.
Physicians do an excellent job of fixing things that are broken. The government, corporate policies, patients, the healthcare insurance industry and physicians do little to prevent our bodies from becoming broken. If Mr. Greenspan is correct and the healthcare crisis is “ the greatest threat to the U.S. economy and the candidates haven't told us what they'd do about it, they haven't told us a thing.” The candidates should develop an understanding of the problems and viable solutions to the problems. However, they are avoiding them.
The opinions expressed in the blog “Repairing The Healthcare System” are, mine and mine alone.