This was a very big week for cancer vaccines. Long time readers of this blog know that I am a proponent of Cancer Vaccines.
First, Dendreon released the full results of the pivotal Provenge trial. As expected, a survival benefit was demonstrated of about 4 months. Now the discussions will begin to focus on the value of a life. From a societal standpoint, is it worth it to save a man's life for 4 months? Some feel the answer is no.
And based on the trial, Dendreon's stock price has soared. Along the way, they have picked up analyst coverage from Needham and Lazard.
But approval of Provenge is far from assured. The FDA doesn't like to admit mistakes - and approving Provenge now will be an acknowledgment of its own past errors. Don’t count out the rouge and shadowy figure Dr. Howard Scher – a man in the shadows, but who still has considerable influence.
I rarely discuss the industry from an investment perspective. But I will do so now. Dendreon is probably over a year from bringing Provenge to market and it will require resources to commercialize. Currently trading at $21.51, I think it’s overvalued. I like Dendreon in the teens, but not now. FDA approval can’t be taken for granted and it will take some time for the company to become profitable. Company insiders have also begun selling shares too. But I’m proud of Dendreon for standing up for patients, bucking an unresponsive agency and giving the finger to physicians who are willing put personal profits in front of patient health.
But Dendreon is not the only player in cancer vaccines right now. If I were into playing the market right now, I like Antigenics. Trading at $0.7099 (although a reverse 1-10 stock split is on the table at their annual meeting), there's risk, but also upside. The technology still needs to be proven, but it has considerable potential. This week Antigenics received orphan drug status from the FDA for glioma. This comes on the heels of receiving orphan drug designation in the EU. The pieces are starting to fall into place for Antigenics.
And the tide is turning for cancer vaccines.
First, Dendreon released the full results of the pivotal Provenge trial. As expected, a survival benefit was demonstrated of about 4 months. Now the discussions will begin to focus on the value of a life. From a societal standpoint, is it worth it to save a man's life for 4 months? Some feel the answer is no.
And based on the trial, Dendreon's stock price has soared. Along the way, they have picked up analyst coverage from Needham and Lazard.
But approval of Provenge is far from assured. The FDA doesn't like to admit mistakes - and approving Provenge now will be an acknowledgment of its own past errors. Don’t count out the rouge and shadowy figure Dr. Howard Scher – a man in the shadows, but who still has considerable influence.
I rarely discuss the industry from an investment perspective. But I will do so now. Dendreon is probably over a year from bringing Provenge to market and it will require resources to commercialize. Currently trading at $21.51, I think it’s overvalued. I like Dendreon in the teens, but not now. FDA approval can’t be taken for granted and it will take some time for the company to become profitable. Company insiders have also begun selling shares too. But I’m proud of Dendreon for standing up for patients, bucking an unresponsive agency and giving the finger to physicians who are willing put personal profits in front of patient health.
But Dendreon is not the only player in cancer vaccines right now. If I were into playing the market right now, I like Antigenics. Trading at $0.7099 (although a reverse 1-10 stock split is on the table at their annual meeting), there's risk, but also upside. The technology still needs to be proven, but it has considerable potential. This week Antigenics received orphan drug status from the FDA for glioma. This comes on the heels of receiving orphan drug designation in the EU. The pieces are starting to fall into place for Antigenics.
And the tide is turning for cancer vaccines.