When we talk about health care, we talk in the billions, and in some cases trillions, of dollars and in time spans of decades and in physicians and nurses per 100,000 population. Numbers are really, really big in health care-- REALLY big.
Planning that utilizes statistics both past and present and then attempts to extrapolate this information to the future is tried, but with significant error, because the world isn't static and neither is science or technology or the economy.
Just a year or two ago, there were suggestions and even insistence that growth in Canada's GDP would be sufficient to offset the rising costs of health care. A great deal has changed since then and no matter how we wish things could be different, we really do need to face reality.
An excellent article recently in the National Post by Terence Corcoran pointed out some significant facts:
* The federal deficit (not debt) for this year, originally estimated at $50 billion is now pegged at $55 billion
* According to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, by the year 2015, the series of deficits expected over the next few years will run up the national debt (not deficit) by $170 billion
* Ottawa's total net debt will rise to $628 billion meaning about $19,000 per capita which isn't much different from 1997, the peak year for federal debt.
* Provinces and local governments are also running deficit budgets.
*Ontario is heading for a deficit of $18 billion this year with deficit budgets likely for years to come.
* BC, Alberta, Quebec, New Brunswick and Newfoundland....all riding deficits....to the tune of about $31 billion this year alone.
* Canada's provinces are likely to add close to $100 billion in total new debt over the next five years.
* Added to the provinces' net debt of $274 billion as of the end of 2008, this additional $100 billion will bring the provincial net debt to $375 billion by the end of 2015.
* Add $375 billion in provincial net debt to the projected federal net debt of $628 billion by 2015 and you are looking at $ 1 trillion (TRILLION) in debt...about $30,000 per man, woman and child.
So...the message is likely that to turn this trend around, cuts to government spending will be needed and possibly more taxation. Either one on its own is painful. Together they are even more concerning.
With health care being the biggest portion of all provincial budgets and with federal funding for health care already having been dished out fairly lavishly to the tune of billions and billions only back in 2004 (remember, the "fix for a generation" by Paul Martin) one wonders where anybody gets the idea that we are going to get the funding to shorten wait times, add a national pharmacare program or adopt new and increasingly expensive diagnostics and treatments let alone contribute to improved education programs and environmental initiatives or to withstand the economic blast of a serious pandemic.
No doubt about it: The public is going to have to be more self-reliant when it comes to their health care whether through monitoring their own chronic illnesses, using social networking sites to connect with others who share the same illness or through funding their own procedures or preventative care.
Or maybe you think that a trillion dollars of debt for 35 million Canadians isn't that bad after all. Think again.
When we talk about health care, we talk in the billions, and in some cases trillions, of dollars and in time spans of decades and in physicians and nurses per 100,000 population. Numbers are really, really big in health care-- REALLY big.
Planning that utilizes statistics both past and present and then attempts to extrapolate this information to the future is tried, but with significant error, because the world isn't static and neither is science or technology or the economy.
Just a year or two ago, there were suggestions and even insistence that growth in Canada's GDP would be sufficient to offset the rising costs of health care. A great deal has changed since then and no matter how we wish things could be different, we really do need to face reality.
An excellent article recently in the National Post by Terence Corcoran pointed out some significant facts:
* The federal deficit (not debt) for this year, originally estimated at $50 billion is now pegged at $55 billion
* According to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, by the year 2015, the series of deficits expected over the next few years will run up the national debt (not deficit) by $170 billion
* Ottawa's total net debt will rise to $628 billion meaning about $19,000 per capita which isn't much different from 1997, the peak year for federal debt.
* Provinces and local governments are also running deficit budgets.
*Ontario is heading for a deficit of $18 billion this year with deficit budgets likely for years to come.
* BC, Alberta, Quebec, New Brunswick and Newfoundland....all riding deficits....to the tune of about $31 billion this year alone.
* Canada's provinces are likely to add close to $100 billion in total new debt over the next five years.
* Added to the provinces' net debt of $274 billion as of the end of 2008, this additional $100 billion will bring the provincial net debt to $375 billion by the end of 2015.
* Add $375 billion in provincial net debt to the projected federal net debt of $628 billion by 2015 and you are looking at $ 1 trillion (TRILLION) in debt...about $30,000 per man, woman and child.
So...the message is likely that to turn this trend around, cuts to government spending will be needed and possibly more taxation. Either one on its own is painful. Together they are even more concerning.
With health care being the biggest portion of all provincial budgets and with federal funding for health care already having been dished out fairly lavishly to the tune of billions and billions only back in 2004 (remember, the "fix for a generation" by Paul Martin) one wonders where anybody gets the idea that we are going to get the funding to shorten wait times, add a national pharmacare program or adopt new and increasingly expensive diagnostics and treatments let alone contribute to improved education programs and environmental initiatives or to withstand the economic blast of a serious pandemic.
No doubt about it: The public is going to have to be more self-reliant when it comes to their health care whether through monitoring their own chronic illnesses, using social networking sites to connect with others who share the same illness or through funding their own procedures or preventative care.
Or maybe you think that a trillion dollars of debt for 35 million Canadians isn't that bad after all. Think again.