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The Cancer Market Outlook To 2014: Competitive landscape, market size, pipeline analysis

Posted May 03 2010 2:37am

In the current decade, oncology has been one of the most important growth segments among the pharmaceutical markets with a major focus on targeted agents (drug treatments developed to preferentially target those signaling pathways that are disregulated in tumors). Most innovation in oncology over the past 10 years has been driven by scientific advances, particularly in genomics, transcriptomics and proteomics.

In the current environment, the successful oncology players of the future will be those that can anticipate protocol evolution and design the most relevant clinical trials. In recent years, biotech companies have fuelled innovation in oncology more than ever before. Partnering with biotech companies is a key (but expensive) source of innovation for many pharma companies as approximately 75% of phase II, III and pre-registration innovative drugs are of biotech origin.

At $47.7bn, cancer is one of the largest, fastest growing markets in the pharmaceutical industry. However, pricing risk remains the key investment concern in oncology. The key concern, however, is not price erosion driven by competitive forces, but price cuts imposed by payors irrespective of the fact that such unilateral price cuts by payors have never occurred in any of the major developed markets and would surely jeopardize the premise on which the entire biopharmaceutical industry has been built.

Key features of this report

• Epidemiological analysis and forecast prevalence of the major cancer indications over the period 2008-14 including lung, breast, colorectal, ovarian cancer markets.

• Forecasts and analysis of the major products in the cancer market over the period 2008-14 spread across the major indications and classes of treatments.

• Overview of key events in the global cancer market that have impacted treatment trends and sales potential across the major cancer indications.

• Strategic and growth analysis of leading pharmaceutical corporations based on sales focus by drug class, currently marketed products and R&D product portfolios.

Scope of this report

• Develop insight into patient potential with the report’s coverage of major indications in the cancer segment, the seven largest geographic pharmaceutical markets and 10 largest companies active in the cancer segment today

• Quickly understand how recent events are affecting the performance of major products, and how their marketers are confronting competitive changes in cancer marketplace

• Gain up-to-date competitive intelligence across the cancer indications and understand the major issues affecting key pharmaceutical/biotech players

• Understand which indications have the greatest potential to provide franchise growth, and how pharmaceutical companies are attempting to exploit these opportunities

Key Market Issues

• FDA approves Cervarix for cervical cancer
In October 2009, FDA approved GSK’s Cervarix for the prevention of pre-cancerous lesions caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 & 18 in women aged 10–25 years. Cervarix’s inclusion in children’s vaccine program is a major step towards securing reimbursement. Cervarix, expected to launch by the end of 2009, faces direct competition from Merck’s Gardasil and will help to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer in future.

• Merck’s Gardasil adds US indication of genital warts for boys and men
On 16th October 2009, Gardasil’s US label was extended to include its use in both men and boys aged 9–26 years of age. The pivotal trial results showed an efficacy of 90.4% while preventing external genital lesions of HPV types 6/11/16/18. In addition, Merck also planned to extend its vaccine patient assistance program providing free Gardasil to 19–26 year old uninsured males meeting eligibility criteria but unable to afford the vaccine.

Key findings from this report

• In 2008, antineoplastic mAbs delivered huge sales of $13.6bn with a market share of 28.6% of total sales. The key antineoplastic mAbs which contributed to the higher market share of this class in 2008 were MabThera (11.0%), Avastin (10.3%), Herceptin (9.7%) and Erbitux (3.4%). Forecast sales of the total antineoplastics market are estimated at $65.2bn in 2014.

• Roche is the global market leader in cancer, holding the highest market share of 29.2% ($14.0bn sales) in 2008 based on sales from (MabThera, Avastin, Herceptin, Tarceva and Xeloda). Roche’s strength in the cancer market has been bolstered by its acquisition of Genentech and purchase of majority stakes in Chugai, which has provided additional breadth to its portfolio.

• Eli Lilly’s acquisition of ImClone will increase the former’s flow of high-quality, innovative new therapies. The transaction will immediately enable Eli Lilly to offer physicians and their patients a complementary portfolio of leading oncolytic agents and targeted therapies including Gemzar, Alimta and Erbitux.

Key questions answered

• What will be the major growth indications in the cancer segment over the period 2008–14?

• Which companies were the winners and losers in the cancer segment in 2008?

• How have recent major launches from companies such as Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, AstraZeneca, Novartis and Eli Lilly performed?

• Which companies will become the key players in the cancer segment over the period 2008–14?

• Which products will be impacted by generic competitors over the period 2008–14

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