The trade market may be dormant for the next few months, but the rumors will be sure to pick up by July. Let's run through the deadline trade candidates for 2009.
Pirates veterans: Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez. The three highest-paid Pirates are all entering their contract years, assuming the 2010 options for Wilson and Sanchez are declined. Wilson was nearly traded during the winter.
Well-paid Astros: Miguel Tejada, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, Jose Valverde. If the Astros struggle in the first half, perhaps a farm system restocking will be in order. Oswalt is a franchise player with a full no-trade clause, so he'd have to want out to be traded. Lee also has full no-trade rights and is owed $74MM over the next four years. Tejada and Valverde are eligible for free agency after the season, so they're the most likely trade candidates. Valverde, at least, is at the top of his game.
Boras clients headed for free agency:Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Jarrod Washburn, Xavier Nady. Contrary to popular belief, Boras clients do occasionally forego free agency (Ryan Madson, for example). But usually, they test the market. We've seen in the 2008-09 offseason that compensation draft picks aren't all they're cracked up to be - the Blue Jays may have been better off dealing A.J. Burnett during the summer than taking the Yankees' third-round pick plus a supplemental. Perhaps this will result in increased trading of impending free agents. Of this group, Ankiel seems most likely to go (Colby Rasmus is nipping at his heels).
Other impending free agents: Troy Glaus, Jermaine Dye, Aubrey Huff, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer. Two variables: the first halves of the players and their teams. A few will throw a wrench into trade talks with no-trade protection.
Pricey Padres: Brian Giles, Jake Peavy. Both players control their fate with full no-trade rights. Giles has mentioned the Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees as his preferred destinations. Peavy was willing to accept a trade to the Cubs. These restrictions on the suitors may reduce the return.
Firesale in Detroit: Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Placido Polanco, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Justin Verlander. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system sees a weak AL Central in 2009, with the Tigers checking in at 78 wins. That level of performance might be enough to stave off a midseason fire sale, but if the club underperforms it might be appropriate to clean house. Verlander is the intriguing name. In January, ESPN's Jayson Stark talked to one AL exec who would not be surprised to see the young fireballer on the block.
Pair of aces: Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb. Both ace starters are under contract for 2010 (Webb has a cheap club option). If the Blue Jays or D'Backs are in the tank, they'll have the deadline's hottest commodities. And they're more than rentals. Each pitcher would require a king's ransom. Neither starter has been made available...yet.
Other Jays veterans: Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay. If the Blue Jays can't keep pace in the AL East, J.P. Ricciardi will have plenty of inventory aside from Halladay. Many of these contracts will be prohibitive, however.
Marlins making more than the minimum: Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida. In Marlin-world, a $3-5MM salary makes you trade bait.
Other possibilities: Nick Swisher, Garrett Atkins, Huston Street, Mike Cameron, Julio Lugo, Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood.
- Pirates veterans: Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez. The three highest-paid Pirates are all entering their contract years, assuming the 2010 options for Wilson and Sanchez are declined. Wilson was nearly traded during the winter.
- Well-paid Astros: Miguel Tejada, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, Jose Valverde. If the Astros struggle in the first half, perhaps a farm system restocking will be in order. Oswalt is a franchise player with a full no-trade clause, so he'd have to want out to be traded. Lee also has full no-trade rights and is owed $74MM over the next four years. Tejada and Valverde are eligible for free agency after the season, so they're the most likely trade candidates. Valverde, at least, is at the top of his game.
- Boras clients headed for free agency:Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Jarrod Washburn, Xavier Nady. Contrary to popular belief, Boras clients do occasionally forego free agency (Ryan Madson, for example). But usually, they test the market. We've seen in the 2008-09 offseason that compensation draft picks aren't all they're cracked up to be - the Blue Jays may have been better off dealing A.J. Burnett during the summer than taking the Yankees' third-round pick plus a supplemental. Perhaps this will result in increased trading of impending free agents. Of this group, Ankiel seems most likely to go (Colby Rasmus is nipping at his heels).
- Other impending free agents: Troy Glaus, Jermaine Dye, Aubrey Huff, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer. Two variables: the first halves of the players and their teams. A few will throw a wrench into trade talks with no-trade protection.
- Pricey Padres: Brian Giles, Jake Peavy. Both players control their fate with full no-trade rights. Giles has mentioned the Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees as his preferred destinations. Peavy was willing to accept a trade to the Cubs. These restrictions on the suitors may reduce the return.
- Firesale in Detroit: Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Placido Polanco, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Justin Verlander. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system sees a weak AL Central in 2009, with the Tigers checking in at 78 wins. That level of performance might be enough to stave off a midseason fire sale, but if the club underperforms it might be appropriate to clean house. Verlander is the intriguing name. In January, ESPN's Jayson Stark talked to one AL exec who would not be surprised to see the young fireballer on the block.
- Pair of aces: Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb. Both ace starters are under contract for 2010 (Webb has a cheap club option). If the Blue Jays or D'Backs are in the tank, they'll have the deadline's hottest commodities. And they're more than rentals. Each pitcher would require a king's ransom. Neither starter has been made available...yet.
- Other Jays veterans: Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay. If the Blue Jays can't keep pace in the AL East, J.P. Ricciardi will have plenty of inventory aside from Halladay. Many of these contracts will be prohibitive, however.
- Marlins making more than the minimum: Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida. In Marlin-world, a $3-5MM salary makes you trade bait.
- Other possibilities: Nick Swisher, Garrett Atkins, Huston Street, Mike Cameron, Julio Lugo, Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood.
Source: Spring Training 09