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Saints vs. Raiders- Oakland Trip the Ep

Posted Jan 26 2013 8:01am

Saints vs. Raiders: Oakland Trip the Epitome of a Trap Game for first time Orleans Football Outsiders define a trap game as "any game against a sub- .500 opponent slotted between two opponents who, on the season, posted records above .500."For the newest Orleans Saints, this weekend's game at Oakland fulfills every one of the requirements presented by Football Outsiders.The Saints are coming off a victory from the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons. Their next two opponents as soon as the Raiders are the San Francisco 49ers, who hold an ominous 6-2-1 record; as well as the Atlanta Falcons, who are now 8-1.And the Gambling are presently 3-6 and live in third devote the AFC West.There it is, this week's matchup meets all the requirements of an trap game laid out by Football Outsiders.Even more, they must be on alert like a few other developments favor Oakland immediately.Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesOf greatest importance, one of the Raiders' two home wins came against among the NFL's best, the Gambling. The Raiders always manage to win 1 or 2 home games each season against really good teams.Perhaps it's due to traveling to the West Coast. Perhaps oahu is the unruly fans or "Raider mystique."Maybe it is the ghost of Al Davishanging over Coliseum, as well as the thousands of other sponsorship names it has been caved yesteryear A decade.Whatever it really is, the Raiders along with

their silver and black seem to intimidate opponents in Oakland ample to win a couple of big games.Another disturbing trend staring they in the face is definitely the effect of Oakland's game a couple weeks ago at Baltimore. Oakland lost to the Ravens 55-20. This is a blowout regardless of how you spin it.To a friendly fan, as well as some college football games fans, that might seem like an encouraging fact.But remember last season if the Saints scored 60-plus points around the Indianapolis Colts on a Sunday night, and then come out and stink the joint in St. Louis the subsequent week. Overturn often comes true in the NFL.I call it the regression to the mean theory. Statistically speaking, should you toss a coin in mid-air Ten times but got it heading to heads seven times that might be highly improbable.The next 10 tosses you'd be prepared to result in just three heads, for the reason that probability is 50-50 that the coin lands heads or tails. The outcomes could eventually net 50-50 probability during the period of time. That is essentially regression to the mean.The same can often be true in football. No NFL team is really as bad as quitting 55 points in a game. It is really an outlier if this happens. On the season, the Oakland Raiders are giving up a staggering 31.6 points per game. But due to

the small sample size, we are able to reasonably assert that average is highly influenced by the Ravens from the other day.We want to avoid that game since it is an outlier. We'll consider the eight previous games to acquire a more accurate points per game measure. In eight games the c's lost the battle 229 points prior to Baltimore game. That is certainly beneficial to 28.63 points per game.In short, we'd expect the Raiders to stop something closer to that mark now against the Saints. And now we know already the Saints' defense is capable of doing giving up more points than that.We also have in mind the regression for the meanmeans the Raiders are actually more likely to stop trying under 28 points within this contest.That's a great deal of statistical talk. The 3rd disturbing trend for brand new Orleans may be the likely weather on Sunday in Oakland.The environment is calling for temperatures inside 50s with at least a 50 % chance of rain. That likely means a slippery ball, wet and soggy field and uncomfortable playing conditions for both teams.Dennis Allen can be a former assistant under Sean Payton in New Orleans. Sunday is his first possibility to go against his former team.Rob Carr/Getty ImagesIf ever there are an excellent equalizer in football, it is commonly conditions.Finally, first-year Raiders head coach Dennis Allen spent time in New Orleans as the

defensive backs coach under Gregg Williams. He knows this Saints team and also any opposing head coach possibly could.That is just one more possible advantage to the Raiders on Sunday.Joe Vitt said all of the right things soon about the Raiders normally, about teams who struggle the week prior coming back to the mean resulting in this trap game, evenadamantly denying it is a trap game. "I never said trap game, did I You guys said that," Vitt said. Yet we all know that's coach speak. All people have heard coaches talk that week before type of game before, but still seen their team come out flat and not prepared to play.It happens all the time in sports.The Saints must avoid that this week. In accordance with the standings, this can be one of the easiest remaining games on the schedule. A victory against a bad Oakland team is necessary to maintain momentum and make a legitimate push towards the playoffs.For a team that found itself inside a 0-4 hole just 6 weeks ago, it will be a good idea to channel that same form of psychological "us up against the world, you will find there's mountain to climb" kind of attitude.It cannot take this team and also this game lightly. Or else the growing season could be over Sunday evening. My own mail that.That's what trap games ultimately do. They end your season.Follow

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